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Ambassador Roy at AmCham Shanghai

Presentation focused on:

  • Future of US China relationship.
  • Comprehensive Measures of Intl Power vs Nations GDP.
  • Physiological issues are bigger.

Ambassador Roy also presented at the Shanghai Institute of Intl Studies before the []AmCham Shanghai](http://www.amcham-shanghai.org/) presentation.

  • US may be distracted by domestic difficulties.
  • It’s a psychological battle – perception – not reality
  • Asians want engagement, not “US leadership”

The Future

  1. Measured rhetoric as a tool, but don’t take action
  2. We already invest less AND trade less than China than in SE-Asia
  3. US is not competitive
  4. As China becomes more influential, why would China defer to the US?

Problem: – There will be a period where China is economically dominant, but the US is militarily dominant. – The problem is the period of time from the beginning to the end of this transition.

  1. China gets stronger every day
  2. The US gets weaker every day
  3. Time is working against the US

There is zero Int’l support for “containment” of China. Nobody is willing to go against China.

There is no inherent reason for conflict with China.

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