Can Central Bankers Prevent A Great Depression?

今早“寻找阿尔法”有一篇文章叫:央行家能防止大萧条

这里有更多的消息关于为什么现在的全球金融危机是上世纪90年代的互联网泡沫和亚洲金融危机的后果。

Greenspan’s second error was pegging interest rates too-low and too-long at 1%, and moving too slowly to lift the fed funds rate to a more neutral level, that could have taken the wind out of the housing bubble. Instead, Greenspan was a “serial bubble blower,” inflating commodity and housing prices at the same time, while casting a blind-eye to reckless sub-prime lending in the mortgage market.

格林斯潘的第二个错误是太长的时候压着利息太低,在1%,然后他太慢把这个利息率提到一个合理的比例,如没有压着利息率那么低,房地产泡沫就早结束了。反而,格林斯潘是个“连续造成泡沫着”,同时造成通货膨胀和放低长价格升高,并没有监督很高危险的按揭贷款。

After stock market “bubbles” collapse, coinciding with economic recessions, it can take several years until the forces of inflation gain the upper-hand over deflation. The textbook way to combat deflation is for central banks to rapidly expand the money supply or bank credit, and slash interest rates. That’s what the BoJ and Fed did in 2001, in a double barreled assault against deflation.

如同时有股市泡沫崩溃和经济衰退,经济的反弹经常需要几年。反弹的过程要求通货膨胀需要超过通货紧缩。最典型克服通货紧缩方式是央行来快速扩大货币的供应,银行信贷,或把利息率剪得很低。直至2001年,日本央行和美联是怎么做的-直接攻击通货紧缩。

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